標(biāo)題：動(dòng)態(tài)追蹤疾病狀態(tài)的建模與分析
報(bào)告時(shí)間：2025年8月2日（星期六）13：20-14：20
報(bào)告地點(diǎn)：人民大街校區(qū)數(shù)學(xué)與統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院415教室
主講人：李啟寨
主辦單位：數(shù)學(xué)與統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院
報(bào)告內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介：
Tracking health outcomes in longitudinal biomedical studies has important clinical implications in preventive medicine, which is methodologically challenging because of time-varying covariates and unbalanced longitudinal data. A tracking index, the ``tracking prediction probability" (TPP), is proposed to quantify the ability of a subject developing certain health outcomes conditioning on his\her health outcomes and covariates at a past time point. For the unknown unstructured distribution functions in practice, we consider a class of structured dynamic copula-based models for the TPPs at two time points, and give the continuous-time TPP estimates of TPP through local smoothing allowing for the known or unknown copula family. They can provide additional insights into the dynamic patterns of the disease risk factors and the health outcomes. We develop the asymptotic properties of the discrete-time and continuous-time estimators for the copula parameters and the TPPs, and investigate the finite sample properties of these estimators through a comprehensive simulation. Applying our models and estimation procedure to a large epidemiological study of child growth and cardiovascular health, the dynamic relationships between the risk of developing hypertension in the future and the evolving patterns of past blood pressure levels and BMI changes are efficiently illustrated.
主講人簡(jiǎn)介：
中國(guó)科學(xué)院數(shù)學(xué)與系統(tǒng)科學(xué)研究院 研究員，系統(tǒng)科學(xué)研究所副所長(zhǎng)；2001年本科畢業(yè)于中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)，2006年博士畢業(yè)于中國(guó)科學(xué)院數(shù)學(xué)與系統(tǒng)科學(xué)研究院，2006-2009年在美國(guó)國(guó)立衛(wèi)生健康研究院(NIH)國(guó)家癌癥研究所(NCI)從事博士后研究；2016年當(dāng)選國(guó)際統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)會(huì)推選會(huì)員(ISI Elected Member), 2020年當(dāng)選美國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)會(huì)會(huì)士(ASA Fellow)，2023年獲國(guó)家高端人才稱(chēng)號(hào)；研究方向：生物醫(yī)學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)、遺傳統(tǒng)計(jì)、復(fù)雜數(shù)據(jù)推斷等；在Nature Genetics, Science Advances, ACIE, CR, AJHG, Bioinformatics, IEEE TPAMI, Psychometrika, JASA, JRSSB, Biometrics等期刊發(fā)表論文120余篇；現(xiàn)任中國(guó)數(shù)學(xué)會(huì)常務(wù)理事、中國(guó)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)統(tǒng)計(jì)研究會(huì)常務(wù)理事等。
